Stoker tells supporters he will run for Senate

Mike Stoker

Former Santa Barbara County Supervisor Mike Stoker, who lost a bid for the state Assembly two years ago, sent an email to supporters Wednesday telling them he is planning a series of events Feb. 24 to announce he will become a candidate in the new 19th Senate District.

In an interview, however, Stoker said he is not yet fully committed to entering the race.

"We expect that two weeks from Friday, we will be making an announcement, but things could change," he said.

In the email, he wrote, "We are planning to hold three press conferences announcing my candidacy," and asked supporters to turn out at the events in Camarillo, Santa Barbara and Santa Maria.

If Stoker follows through, he will become the first Republican to enter the race in the district, which includes western Ventura County and all of Santa Barbara County. About 53 percent of district voters are in Ventura County.

Two Democrats, Oxnard Harbor District Commissioner Jason Hodge and former Assemblywoman Hannah-Beth Jackson of Santa Barbara, have been campaigning for months.

On paper, the district appears to strongly favor a Democratic candidate. Democrats enjoy a 12.3 percentage-point advantage in voter registration, and Republican registration is 31.3 percent, well below the 35 percent threshold most analysts think a GOP candidate needs to be competitive.

But a poll of likely primary voters done by Hodge's campaign and made public late last month indicated Stoker could potentially be competitive against Jackson. It showed Stoker was supported by a plurality of likely primary voters, but because the poll did not survey the more heavily Democratic universe of likely general election voters it did not indicate how the two might match up in November.

Under the state's new primary system, the top two finishers June 5 will advance to the November election. If Stoker or some other relatively well-known Republican becomes a candidate, the GOP candidate likely would advance to run against the Democrat who finishes highest in June.

Stoker, 56, is an attorney who served two terms on the Santa Barbara County Board of Supervisors. He grew up in Ventura County graduated from Camarillo High School.

Two years ago, he lost by 10 percentage points to Democratic Assemblyman Das Williams of Santa Barbara. He was encouraged by the results because he outperformed voter registration in the district, which favored Democrats by 19 points.